The 137th annual Preakness Stakes is coming fast and there’s not much time left to get your bets in on I’ll Have Another to win the second leg of the Triple Crown.
The 3-year old colt will try to end the 34-year Triple Crown drought today, where he has 5/2 odds to win, according to Bovada’s Preakness Stakes Futures Odds.
If you’re looking for a betting tip, know that the race track bodes no real advantage for a Derby winner to win the second leg. In the last 31 years, only 10 Derby winners have gone on to win the Preakness. That’s about the same amount of times the overall favorite won the race during that same span.
Point is, don’t pick your horse based on the Kentucky Derby outcome.
What is working in I’ll Have Another’s favor is the fact that Dullahan and Trinniberg, two of his biggest threats, are sitting this one out. Dullahan, which lost by just two lenths at the Derby will be held until Belmont, while Trinniberg was only going to race if Bodemeister wasn’t.
Bodemeister is the favorite again at 8/5, a familiar place for him after being the front runner at Churchill Downs. Trainer Bob Baffert turned some heads when he signed him up instead of giving rest. But he did the same thing in 2006 when Looking At Lucky lost the first race, only to change jockeys and win the Preakness.
Bodemeister sets up better for this track, anyway. His blazing speed is better for this shorter track, making it a better place to be in the lead. Bovada’s Preakness Stakes Odds are giving long odds for the winner goes wire-to-wire, and Bodemeister certainly has the chops for it. Still, it’s a long shot considering only five of the last 52 winners have led the whole way.
“Bodemeister is not your typical speed horse,” Doc’s Sports wrote on Covers. “On top of his exceptional speed he has serious stamina bred into him as well. He did fade late in the Derby, but not compared to the other speed horses — Trinniberg pushed Bodemeister early on and wound up 30 lengths back at the wire. Most speed horses are on a suicide mission and they know it, but Bodemeister is different.”
As for the rest of the field, most of the front runners are fresh horses who didn’t run the Derby. That could be bad news, according to Doc’s Sports.
“The truth is that betting on the fresher horses is usually a terrible idea. In the last 28 years we have seen just three fresh horses win the Preakness. Looking at the last 15 editions of the Preakness we have seen 91 new entrants. Only three of those have won — just over three percent. The other 12 winners have come 
from among the 77 horses who were also in the Derby. That’s a rate of 16 percent. That means that it is five times more likely for a Derby entrant to win the Preakness than it is for a fresh horse to do so.”
Of all the “fresh” horses in the field, Went The Day Well has the best odds at 6/1, followed by Daddy Nose Best (14/1).
Top 11 Favorites To Win The 2012 Preakness Stakes On May 19, 2012
