We haven’t even run the first leg yet, but why not get into the Triple Crown talk today, shall we? Although it hasn’t been done since Affirmed in 1978, oddsmakers are already posting odds for a Triple Crown to happen this year.

Bodemeister and Union Rags are the obvious choices, gaining all the publicity heading up to the race. They seem to be the only ones with realistic shots. Other horses lack the combination of speed and endurance they will need to sweep the biggest races of the year.

But even then, it’s a long shot. Churchhill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia had a hard time picking a favorite for the Kentucky Derby because the colts are so evenly matched.

“I wanted to make them co-favorites,” Battaglia said. “I haven’t been this close on two horses since Curlin and Street Sense (in 2007). I wanted to make them co-favorites and I didn’t. They went off 10 cents apart.”

Union Rags hasn’t lost yet, but is lightly raced. Bodemeister looked really impressive at the Arkansas Derby a few weeks ago, but never raced as a 2-year old. No horse who sat out his second year has ever won the Derby.

To win the Triple Crown, the winner of the Derby will have to be clearly dominant to the rest of the pack, and so far that hasn’t been the case. At least not for oddsmakers, who have had a really difficult time picking a favorite even for Saturday’s race. Union Rags and Bodemeister are simple 1 and 1a at this point, so it’s hard for anyone to project if one can win three times in a row.

Breaking it down, Bovada’s Horse Racing Prop Betting is giving -300 odds the winner of tomorrow’s race won’t win at Preakness Stakes, and -500 odds that he won’t win at Belmont.

Add it together, and a triple crown winner doesn’t seem likely.

In fact, Bovada has a pretty direct bet in itself, allowing bettors to predict if a horse will win the triple crown this year. Odds are pretty long at +575, but if you believe it will happen, there’s some good money to be made. Union Rags probably has the best shot to do it. The colt hasn’t lost yet in his career and won’t look to do it now.